Forecasting Electricity Demand and Planning for Renewable Energy Integration in a Semi-Urban Nigerian Community: A Case Study of Auchi, Edo State (2020–2033)

Abstract

This study employed quantitative forecasting methods (Time Series, Regression Analysis, and Compound Annual Growth Rate - CAGR) to model future electricity consumption and population growth in Auchi, Edo State, Nigeria, spanning a 13-year horizon (2020-2033). Historical data (2020–2024), sourced from the Benin City Electricity Distribution Company (BEDC), revealed a significantly insufficient and unstable primary power supply, with an overall average daily availability of only 7.74 hours. Consumption analysis across three feeders (GRA, Auchi Town, and Igbe Road) showed consistent upward trends, with the socio-economically privileged GRA feeder demonstrating the highest demand. Population, projected to increase from 207,842 in 2020 to 281,352 by 2033, drives this demand. The analysis concludes that to meet the United Nation's energy per capita target (350 kWh/year for Auchi's semi-urban status) and address the growing deficit, the community will require a substantial increase in supplementary energy. Specifically, the required Photovoltaic (PV) supplementary energy is projected to peak at nearly 98 MW by 2033, confirming the critical need for a master plan focused on decentralized solar energy to ensure energy equity and security.